Mark Carney's election

Inter-American Dialogue asked me to answer the following questions (in 250 words altogether!): What ultimately decided the race for Carney and the Liberal Party? What policies will Carney prioritize as prime minister, especially regarding trade and international relations? What is the significance of the Liberal Party’s win in the context of global politics?

And here is my answer: Mark Carney won because many saw him as the best candidate to handle the Trump administration’s tariff war and his threatening signals about Canada’s sovereignty. His experience and obvious comfort in “globalist” circles, which shone in visits to France and the UK, contrast starkly with Poilievre’s narrow domestic focus and utter lack of international experience or interest. This is likely to matter because, notwithstanding both parties’ insistence on the elimination of inter-provincial barriers for the economic future of the country, much of the game will really be played out in negotiations with Washington and in desperate attempts to diversify the country’s trade and investment relations away from the US. From that standpoint, the virtual absence of references to the world beyond the Anglosphere in the Conservative platform and campaign were certainly dismaying. However, while Carney’s Liberals will clearly push beyond it to Europe as a whole, one only finds cursory references to free trade discussions with Mercosur and Asean in their formal plans. Perhaps most concerning, neither platform mentions CUSMA or Mexico which is Canada’s third largest trade partner and should be seen as a potential ally in the trilateral negotiations that will have to take place soon. Now, Carney announces plans for a new foreign policy, he will be hosting the next G-7 Summit in June and will no doubt be in South Africa in November for the G20. The world clearly matters to him and Latin America may even reappear on Canada’s radar screen under his watch.

Cf. here for other people's takes.